With the number of government-sponsored events, legislative agendas, and international treaty negotiations regarding climate change climbing, the political debate regarding the environment grows ever hotter – far faster than the climate itself. That’s a bit of a wonder given a rather amazing discovery this past month in England.
The University of East Anglia (UK) hosts one of the world's foremost respected climatology research centers, so the discovery of massive scientific fraud by climate scientists at that institution should have thrown a cold dose of reality onto the debate.
Surprisingly, it did not.
The daily onslaught of global warming propaganda continues unabated. Neither the media, politicians, popular celebrities, the educational establishment, or global warming "scientists" appear to be the least bit interested with the issue of corrupted data. The truth, it seems, is irrelevant. Scientific integrity, a quaint anachronism, is to be likewise discarded.
If we need evidence of the degree to which environmentalism has become a religion, here we have it.
So the public debate on global warming continues, in barbershops, beauty salons, cafés and kitchens, all across America, indeed across the globe, based on significant amounts of false information.
Worse yet, educational standards in most of the West are now so low as to render sensible debate on the subject pointless, even if the data were reputable. But let's set that lamentable fact aside. Let's assume we are all geniuses from Punahou or Andover. There is still a critical problem in addressing the issue: We are a society of specialists.
Since the industrial revolution very few of us know much about anything in great detail, except for the professional specialty in which we majored in college, if we attended college. The Renaissance man (with pardons to Christine de Pizan) went out with, well, with the Renaissance. Sure, there are a few autodidacts of great knowledge still lingering about, who managed to slip though the system, their minds undimmed, but they are the exception, not the rule.
With that in consideration, wouldn't it be in everyone's best interest to recognize that most of us are NOT qualified to intelligibly discuss the finer points of climatology, but to also recognize that we ARE being stampeded into doing so?
Those who will benefit through the political process of climate change legislation, and the economic adjustments that would follow, have much to gain in manipulating our fears. We must then assume they are doing so. To do otherwise would be to ignore an inconvenient truth: power corrupts and it even corrupts environmentalists. That corruption will grow far worse once they become carbon billionaires.
Should we not be asking ourselves, are we to be as cattle stampeded over a cliff by unknown forces, or are we to stand as men and women and rationally determine our own course through informed assessment of credible data? Are we truly willing to lay aside all that we have gained since the Enlightenment to return to a Dark Age where superstition and fear trumps science and reason, or are we willing to fight for an Enlightened future based on reason and verifiable evidence?
Global weather patterns are immeasurably complex, so much so that chaos theory suggests that we cannot yet begin to understand them accurately. This is why the weather forecasts are so often wrong. It becomes hubris then to presume that any one species (i.e. Man) can impact such a complex system in a way that the system cannot adequately mediate. The biosphere has been mediating the eruption of super volcanoes and the impact of massive meteors for as long as there has been an atmosphere to support life – and yet life has survived.
So, admittedly, there is much we do not know, perhaps cannot know.
The hysteria of the climate change fear mongers is all based on this lack of knowledge, not on knowledge itself. Many of them will even admit to this, rationalizing their position as, "it is better to be safe than sorry." That can be translated as, "it is better to stay in bed than to risk getting hit by an asteroid if you go outside."
Nonetheless, there are a few simple things that we do know.
All historical evidence regarding climatology indicates that long-term warming and cooling periods are normal cyclical events that have occurred regularly throughout earth's history – and that they occur over periods of millennia (not decades, or even centuries). For those who say, "I remember winters were colder when I was a kid, that is confabulation – which is another natural phenomenon, of the psycho-physiological variety."
Historical evidence also demonstrates periods where the climate has changed radically in one direction or another for short periods, sometimes due to volcanic activity, possibly due to sunspots, and in many cases for reasons unknown.
But here is the critical point: These short-term and long-term shifts have been occurring in the historical record long before the arrival of the industrial revolution – which is what the folks at East Anglia were trying to hide. In short, while the evidence that we are in a period of global warming is fairly incontrovertible, the evidence that it is caused by man (is anthropogenic) is rather less clear – some would argue without support at all. More investigation is clearly needed, and it needs to be conducted with more scrutiny, in an environment of scientific integrity.
Sadly, the East Anglia incident isn’t even the first of its kind. Similar discoveries regarding fraudulent temperature and sea-level data were discovered as early as 2006. Those incidents failed to gain traction as the result of a coordinated counterattack by the climate-change industry on the scientists who questioned the validity of the data. Now, however, thanks to the efforts of some socially responsible hackers – who were clever enough to upload the East Anglia evidence simultaneously to multiple public servers beyond the jurisdiction of American and European law enforcement – clear evidence of premeditated climate-change fraud is finally being brought to light in a manner which doesn’t allow for the vested interests to cover it up.
Somehow, I suspect that wasn’t the kind of transparency that President Obama was expecting when he was preaching transparency on the campaign trail. It may be the kind of transparency we need though.
The ethical issue of “transparency sourcing” aside, here is the crucial point to be learned from the East Anglia incident: many scientists are no longer scientists. The easy spoils of government funding has turned far too many scientists into activists; activists who are all too willing to abandon scientific method in order to guarantee next year's round of government funding.
As long as political popularity is distorting the scientific process in this manner, we must recognize that we have no reliable way to know whether there is long-term global warming, or not, and whether it is anthropogenic, or not. As well, we have no way to assess whether any warming process might even be beneficial – something that everyone appears to assume to be untrue simply because they cannot imagine positive change (more evidence of an approaching Dark Age). That is something that no real scientist would accept as a given.
Life is changing, and life is adapting. It is almost impossible to define life without those qualities. Changing and adapting is what man has been doing on this planet since long before we crawled out of the oceans and later swung down from the trees – both of which occurred in a world that was rather hotter than the one we know today.
It is at the point when we stop changing, when we stop adapting, that we should begin to worry. It is at the point when our environment stops challenging us to change that we should begin to fear.
Stasis is what we should be afraid of, not change. Change is what keeps us alive. It is what defined us as we are now, and it will define what we become in the future – if we let it. The alternative is every bit as unthinkable as would have been choosing to stay in the caves.
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7 Comments
John Lounsbury
Good article.
As far as whether data has been manipulated and/or cherry picked (I believe it has on both sides of the question), I have confidence that the world of science has the capability to sort out the substantiated from the unsubstantiated and eventually resolve what is actual fact. When we are dealing with something as multivariate as climate, eventually for many questions can be decades. And during that long time period more questions will arise creating their own long time frame eventualities.
The problem that many non-scientists have in dealing with situatiions like this that they do not understand, and therefore do have patience with the laborious stepwise exploration of hypothesis and test, repeated many times to reach points of established definitions. It is rare that science advances knowledge in an "ah ha" moment. All too many people (non-scientists) expect answers should be obtained quickly and exactly. That doesn't happen very often.
Jason Rines
Evolution is continuous, our species found a clever way to pull forward demand for decades, take the profits of tomorrow today and live like a king. The world to me has already entered a new Dark Age Debohun. Feudal lords decide how seven billion people live today or tomorrow.
Like the Dark Ages, it all breaks down when the people decide they will not simply work to have 1,500 calories a day and no opportunity in life. This global experiment in feudalism will end like the times of Europe, big decentalization process.
While mankind has evolved in technology, human nature does not change. The primary motivator of our species is the opportunity to benefit. If the global motivator is based on continued fear of loss, the masses do not perform and the kings begin going broke and then these wage war against one another to attempt to spare themselves loss. The scenerio that will unfold reminds me of a big Mexican stand-off.
Because the globe has no conceptual driven set of standards such as truth, freedom and justice State sponsored secularism has filled the void. The only good news about this particular era is the rate of business in the Information Age. Everything is vastly accelerated compared to the last Dark Age. What was a couple of hundred year period will not last more than twenty years. We should be planning ahead and beginning to evolve past this period. In-between, finding one's true happiness in more simple pleasures will suffice.
Toby Russell
R.H. Tawney said: "Systems prepare for their own overthrow by a preliminary process of petrification."
John Holt said: "To ask what is fundamental human nature is to ask what a human being would be like without a culture. Such a question is meaningless, and cannot be answered. There is and can be no such thing as a human being without a culture."
So human nature does change (sorry Jason, I disagree with you on that), in that what we experience of it is behaviour, or range of expressions, which of course changes as culture changes. Human biology or physiology alone, in isolation, is uninteresting, since without a culture to act within, the collection of genes could not grow up, become a human being as we understand it. Have a look at wolf-children, or imagine instead a baby fed and kept clean from birth by a robotic arm in a white, featureless room, then expose it to society at age twenty. It wouldn't even be able to walk, let alone talk.
Also, as all profound cultural change is preceded by a period of petrification, so all we see around us is a natural process as we fumblingly and haltingly (hopefully successfully) transition to the next paradigm. I agree with JohnLounsbury, that in the end the scientific method must win out, since hiding the truth is impossible long term. The Great They most certainly cannot cause global warming out of spite, to prove to unbelievers that it is indeed happening. What will be will be, and in the end honest science and debate must triumph over manipulated and distorted data. You can only play that game for so long. The question is how destructive doing so becomes.
Good article though. Thank you debuhun.
Toby Russell
Let's not see this as winners and losers, but rather as nudging jointly forwards toward a better understanding generally.
There is human nature, but I think we can define it as flexible and malleable in that it gives rise to a vast array of behaviours as it interacts with its environment. Humans are also social by nature, otherwise there would be no language, cities, nations etc., and so, as they together struggle to make things better for themselves, culture emerges. Culture shapes behaviour as behaviour shapes culture, within a setting of ongoing and incremental bio-social changes that give rise to new challenges which are understood and addressed within the context of the culture, and so on. It's a loop.
I think behaviours change quite a lot, even through one life. I don't throw tantrums any more, for example, a result of my changing nature as I grow up. And had I been taken at birth to a rain forest and raised by pigmies I would have a very different set of behaviours indeed. Given my size (nature) maybe I would be seen as a King or maybe a weirdo, so that would have its effect, ditto my green eyes and fair skin and hair. It's not so much chicken and egg as symbiotic, emergent processes that influence each other.
Phew!
Jenn Johnson
Humans tend to be products of their environment. Few can think conceptually outside of that environment. Try putting a New Yorker in the middle of Appalacia. See how quickly they adapt, if they can adapt at all. Humans also tend to have a desire to exert control over their environment. As such, one cannot conceive how weather and the environment can be influenced by factors outside of their control. All of our efforts to reduce carbon can be wiped out in the matter of seconds due to a natural disaster beyond our control. Living within our means is the key. And that change, as a society, will definitely be challenging.
Thomas LaCour
This editorial is very good – well-written, clear-eyed. The more people are made aware that they are being stampeded, the more likely they become to resist manipulation on this topic and on others.
Perhaps the email revelations will finally dent the armor that has shielded the IPCC / Algore malfeasance to date, and which continues as we write here (witness EPA's treatment of its climate scientist last spring, and its announcement last week of intent to regulate CO2 as a pollutant). Australia has soundly defeated their own version of Cap-and-Trade, and that was before the import of these emails was known. And yet, as you so rightly highlight, the push continues unabated. The Copenhagen Conference proceeds unashamedly, and our own Senate seems in no way disposed to suspend its drive to legislate. Chairwoman Boxer, in fact, seems more inclined to investigate the potential illegality of the emails' release (we still don't know whether the revelations were those of a hacker or an inside person), although they ALL should have been released per repeated FOIA requests, than to investigate whether actual "consensus" exists or is pertinent.
Thomas LaCour
I again commend you for the article. It's major thrust, and a high-value and well-presented thrust in my eyes, is that it calls people to use their common sense. One needn't be a climatologist, or even have scientific training, to recognize efforts to "stampede us" for the suspicious acts they are.
This is not only a question of the health of science as a discipline, but of the health of the body politic.
And that is the power of your article. One needn't be able to judge the science itself to smell a rat given the Cui Bono and "loss" of the original temperature data by the CRU while it offers "full access" to its "value-added" temperatures. But, from one who can judge it, let me reiterate my position (and that of the >30000 other scientists who have signed the Petition so far): we do not know enough yet to be jumping into the economic- and liberty-strangling protocols pushed so hard by the alarmists. The fact that they call us "climate change deniers" instead of "sky is falling because of man" skeptics rather makes the point.
I recommend G. Will's article The climate-change travesty if you haven't already seen it.
The article THERE IS NO GOD BUT GLOBAL WARMING AND ALGORE IS HIS PROFIT may seem intimidating at the end, but the science reviewed is worth the look. My young next-door neighbor (criminology major, v. little science) said he found it hard first go-through, but got it eventually. If that part causes your eyes to cross, skip just to the third topic (sea-level rises) and read the very conversational excerpt of the interview with Dr. Morner and his recounting of observed fraud at the IPCC back in 2003.
One item: you wrote that climate changes "occur over periods of millennia (not decades, or even centuries)." Although most global changes do appear to take millenia, as far as the ice-core and tree-ring data tell us, there are abundant data indicating much more rapid change at least for continent-sized areas.
Some were catastrophically shorter: the massive civilizational upheavals in the eastern end of the Mediterranean in N. Africa, Europe, the Aegean, and Near East areas around 1200 B.C. appear quite likely to have resulted from a rapid (1250–1190 B.C.) climate change. And the vineyards of Scotland famous in ca. 1000 A.D. (height of the Medieval Warm period, about 2 °C warmer than now), and later those of England (still famous for its wine in 1350 A.D.), disappeared in a mere 75 years as the temperature plummeted on its way to the minima of the Little Ice Age (1750 A.D.).