There's the old phrase, "Old soldiers never die, they just fade away." In the AGW ranks, they do neither.
Here comes the NOAA, one of the partners complicit in the Anthropogenic Global Warming Scam, with yet another attempt to attach the patina of "scientific observation" to the ooze of cherry-picked and manipulated data. This comes in the face of clear evidence of AGW Pushers' fraud, manipulation of data, interference in the peer review process, conclusive observations debunking the greenhouse gas theory and related CO2-cause hysteria, etc.
Shamelessness, thy name is NOAA.
Scientists Contest New and Ongoing Claims of Man-made Global Warming
March, April, May and June set records, making 2010 the warmest year worldwide since record-keeping began in 1880, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says.
"It's part of an overall trend," says Jay Lawrimore, climate analysis chief at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. "Global temperatures ... have been rising for the last 100-plus years. Much of the increase is due to increases in greenhouse gases."
Left: Low-res map of global temp. anomalies. Higher resolution map here.
There were exceptions: June was cooler than average across Scandinavia, southeastern China, and the northwestern USA, according to NOAA's report.
If nothing changes, Lawrimore predicts:
•Flooding rains like those in Nashville in May will be more common.
"The atmosphere is able to hold more water as it warms, and greater water content leads to greater downpours," he says.
• Heavy snow, like the record snows that crippled Baltimore and Washington last winter, is likely to increase because storms are moving north. Also, the Great Lakes aren't freezing as early or as much. "As cold outbreaks occur, cold air goes over the Great Lakes, picks up moisture and dumps on the Northeast," he says.
• Droughts are likely to be more severe and heat waves more frequent.
• More arctic ice will disappear, speeding up warming, as the Arctic Ocean warms "more than would happen if the sea ice were in place," he says. Arctic sea ice was at a record low in June.
Marc Morano, a global-warming skeptic who edits the Climate Depot website, says the government "is playing the climate fear card by hyping predictions and cherry-picking data."
Joe D'Aleo, a meteorologist who co-founded The Weather Channel, disagrees, too. He says oceans are entering a cooling cycle that will lower temperatures.
He says too many of the weather stations NOAA uses are in warmer urban areas.
"The only reliable data set right now is satellite," D'Aleo says.
He says NASA satellite data shows the average temperature in June was 0.43 degrees higher than normal. NOAA says it was 1.22 degrees higher.
Well of course the NOAA does, they are paid to do so. They use only surface (land and sea) measurements, and they throw out proper (colder) data from rural monitoring stations and replace it with overheated (warmer) data from stations located next to places like hot concrete runways and air-conditioning exhaust ports.
The article does not give the scientist Joe D'Aleo his due: he has over 30 years of international publications, seminars, books etc. to his credit.
The article does not mention the myriad other scientists who continue to do verifiable, open-source work and who find the scam and alarmist nature of the AGW Pushers as repugnant as I do. This very "report" by the NOAA is scientifically and soundly rebutted here. Here's a bit from that analysis.
Global average temperatures through the first six months of 2010 continue to not set records, according to Dr. John Christy, professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. June 2010 was the second warmest June in the 32-year satellite temperature record and the first six months of 2010 were also the second warmest on record.
Compared to seasonal norms, temperatures in the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere continued to fall from May through June as the El Nino Pacific Ocean warming event fades and indications of a La Nina Pacific Ocean cooling event increase. The warmest Junes on record were June 1998 at 0.56 C warmer than seasonal norms, June 2010 at +0.44 and June 2002 at +0.36.
Satellite lower troposphere temperatures and global station data has been diverging in recent decades. NOAA announced that for the globe June 2009 (for the globe) was the second warmest June in 130 years falling just short of 2005. In sharp contrast to this NASA, The University of Alabama Huntsville MSU satellite assessments had June as the 15th coldest and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) 14th coldest in 31 years.
Here is a plot of the NOAA global versus the satellite global since 1979 (enlarged here).
Climate models according to Ben Santer of Lawrence Livermore Labs modelling center predict the lower troposphere should warm (1.2X) more than the surface because that is where the greenhouse gases are. That would look like this (enlarged here). [In other words, the higher blue line is where satellite temp. measurements would be if greenhouse gases were causing warming. The actual observed temps (UAH and RSS) are so far below that level, and the divergence is growing, that the greenhouse gas theory of warming is debunked. - TL]
This implies that the greenhouse theory /models are in error and/or surface data is seriously compromised by other factors like land use and urbanization or more likely both.
Given the onset of La Nina and rapid cooling of the Pacific and some cooling in the eastern Atlantic due to upwelling (and soon the tropical and western Atlantic from heat extraction by tropical systems- western Gulf has already cooled from Alex and TD), oceans should continue to cool and like in 2007, temperatures globally should drop significantly. 2010 will likely fall in the top 5 but not be the warmest ever. The top 5 ranking is guaranteed by all the issues identified here. Reality is something else.
5 Comments
TLaCour
Comments from Richard Keen (Prof. of Climatology, U. Colorado, Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, and an official temperature observer whose data is SUPPOSED to be used in the international and NOAA compilations) on the Lawrimore story (map and graph taken from Climatologist Dr. Richard Keen slams NOAA's Jay Lawrimore for 'a complete lack of understanding of weather at WattsUpWithThat:
Lawrimore’s comment,
"Heavy snow, like the record snows that crippled Baltimore and Washington last winter, is likely to increase because storms are moving north. Also, the Great Lakes aren’t freezing as early or as much. “As cold outbreaks occur, cold air goes over the Great Lakes, picks up moisture and dumps on the Northeast,” he says.”
shows a complete lack of understanding of weather (which makes up climate). East coast snows are caused by lows off the coast, and if the storms move north, Baltimore, Philadelphia, NYC et al. find themselves in the warm sectors of the lows, and enjoy warm southerly winds and rain.
Furthermore, during the snow storms, the winds are from the northeast bringing moisture from the Atlantic (hence the name “nor’easter” for these storms); very little of the moisture comes from the Great Lakes. One of Philadelphia’s snowiest winters was 1978-79, when the Lakes were all but frozen over. Along the east coast, a region that averages very near freezing during the winter, the limiting factor for snow storms is not moisture, but temperature. Most storms are rain.
Now, this is simply a spot check of one of NOAA’s 2000 grid points, but it leads to the question of how far off are the other grid points?
Cheers, Dr. Richard Keen
See also Marc Morano’s full text of his very detailed compilation of responses to NOAA’s Lawrimore on Climate Depot here.
TLaCour
USAToday used only a snippet from Morano's response to the NOAA screed. Here's the full response:
Actual Note from Morano to USA Today.
Climate Depot's full statement to USA Today on 'Hottest' Year And Arctic Ice: NOAA's Jay Lawrimore 'should be ashamed of himself' (Jay.Lawrimore@noaa.gov)'Declaration that we are experiencing the 'hottest' year is purely a political statement. Lawrimore knows that these statistics are merely tenths of a degree or LESS'
Friday, July 16, 2010By Marc Morano – Climate DepotBelow is the full text of the response Climate Depot Executive Editor Marc Morano sent to USA Today: A few of Morano's comments did appear July 16, 2010 article. 'World sizzles to record for the year' by reporter Oren Dorell. Below are the full comments sent to USA Today.
Comments by Marc Morano - Publisher of Climate Depot:
Jay Lawrimore, (chief of climate analysis branch at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center) should be ashamed of himself. (Jay.Lawrimore@noaa.gov) Cherry picking one month out of the Arctic when Arctic ice rebounded significantly in 2009 from the low of 2007. (by an area more than one and half the size of Texas in 2009) Even the low point of Arctic sea ice extent in 2007 was not caused by CO2 driven warming. Multiple peer-review papers found it was due to high pressure days, ocean currents and “unusual winds.” (see links below)
The government is ignoring the record ice growth in the Antarctic and the fact that global sea ice recently hit a 30 year high.
As for the declaration that we are experiencing the “hottest” year -- this is a purely political statement. Lawrimore knows that these statistics are merely tenths of a degree or less. (See: MIT's Richard Lindzen: 'For small changes in climate associated with tenths of a degree, there is no need for any external cause')
(Meteorologist D'Aleo disputes: 'Weather stations NOAA uses are in warmer urban areas' -- 'The only reliable data set right now is satellite' -- 'Oceans entering a cooling cycle that will lower temps')
The same people were shouting that we should not pay attention to global cooling of a few years ago because of the small variations. (Note: More 'reliable' sattelite monitoring of temps does not agree with NOAA)
Lawrimore's predictions of climate doom are including “more flood events, droughts and heavy snowfalls” are just plain silly. A prediction is not evidence and the models used to make these “predictions” are not “predictions” according to the UN IPCC lead authors, but merely “emission scenarios.” The U.S. government is simply playing the climate fear card by hyping predictions and cherry-picking data. [Update: Climatologist Dr. Richard Keen slams NOAA's Jay Lawrimore for 'a complete lack of understanding of weather (which makes up climate).']
Funny how the government is cherry-picking just Arctic ice for the month of June when global sea ice is currently as a 30 year high. See: Global sea ice anomaly is positive: Physicist: “Imagine that. Several decades of news reports about Armageddon and melting ice and after 30 years, we're exactly where we were in 1980.”
Antarctic sea ice is nearing record high again as well. See: June 2010: Antarctic sea ice more than two standard deviations *above* normal; CO2 blamed
See July 2010: Antarctic sea ice peaks at third highest in the satellite record
See: October 2009: Antarctic Summer Ice Melt at 'lowest ever recorded in the satellite history'
'Ice has flatlined in the North Pole, while it goes through the roof in the South Pole...The widely claimed polar meltdown continues to be nothing more than bad fiction'
Arctic chills down: 'Arctic shows no signs of warming, according to the latest data from the Danish Meteorological Institute's Centre for Ocean and Ice -- 'Casts doubt on climate models that had predicted a steady warming of the Arctic'
Warmist Scientist Mark Serreze Recants for stirring up Arctic ice scare stories: 'In hindsight, probably too much was read into 2007, and I would take some blame for that...we read too much into it'
Analysis of 2007 'record' Arctic ice low: 'Ice was compacting...It lost area – while it gained thickness'
Climate Depot Arctic Fact Sheet - Get the latest peer-reviewed studies and analysis -- Arctic Ice Changes in past 3 years due to 'shifting winds'
StuckInNJ
Hey,. you Global Warming believers .............
That's ALL I got to say about that.
Artfuldodger
Great post, Tbo. No doubt we're going to have to continue fighting these liars, although this scam should have faded away years
ago. Thank you for fighting the good fight against them.
This new propaganda blitz is about paving the way for Cap & Tax Legislation.
AGW is impossible. It is proven by these two physicist/mathematicians in this excellent paper: http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/0707/0707.1161v4.pdf
The paper’s introduction states it neatly and concisely:
(a) there are no common physical laws between the warming phenomenon in glass houses and the fictitious atmospheric greenhouse effects, (b) there are no calculations to determine an average surface temperature of a planet, (c) the frequently mentioned difference of 33 degrees Celsius is a meaningless number calculated wrongly, (d) the formulas of cavity radiation are used inappropriately, (e) the assumption of a radiative balance is unphysical, (f) thermal conductivity and friction must not be set to zero, the atmospheric greenhouse conjecture is falsified.
This thorough debunking of the theory of man made warming shows that any mechanism whereby carbon dioxide in the cooler upper atmosphere cannot exert any thermal "forcing" effect on the warmer surface below. To do so would violate both the First and Second Laws of Thermodynamics. As there is no glass roof on the earth to trap the excess heat, it escapes upward into space. Thus we may conclude that the common sense axioms are preserved so that the deeper the ocean, the colder the water and heat rises, it does not fall.
Most everyone reading this site is familiar with it, but many people fighting the Global Warming Hoax are not. Be sure to pass it along to them, because it is clear proof that man-made warming is a joke.
drfrye
I live in the heart of the believers. Al "The Prince of Global Warming" Gore is all but sainted in this atheistic environment of Marin County. This area is the bastian of Prius loving, pot smoking "aka, dumbass brain farts", tree huggers that cannot explain how they are going to power their cute little death machines.
When asked, the most common answer is, "my plug in my garage".
Meanwhile, we have PG&E installing "Smart Meters" throughout the Bay Area, and only Fairfax voted that PG&E CANNOT change out the meters. I wish I knew about that, as mine is changed. Now GE is pressuring for meetings in neighborhoods to install a wireless protection type device. I cannot help to think that this is the second step towards Big Brother as traffic cams and other security cams that police have access to monitor (like in Tiburon) cars coming and going and you walking and doing whatever.
This is all related to the Global Warming Transfer of Wealth Tax - take from the poor and gullible and give to the Rich and Idiotic. yet we continue to buy into their hype and BS. But, again, a rhetorical question as to why? Because the average education level in the US is about 6th grade and with the influx of very UNEDUCATED immigrants, it is dropping fast.
We are DOOOMED I say, DOOOOOMED!