@Artfuldodger: 

Prices are cheap now? Relative to what exactly?  Relative to incomes, prices aren't cheap.  So unless you expect incomes to be rising here in the near future, buying now is preposterous idea.

Anybody who buys into a declining market is an idiot.YOU are an idiot, and a dangerous one at that because you encourage people to buy into a declining market. Read Dr. Housing Bubble, get a CLUE.

You are a boring and stupid man Artless, and a dangerous one to boot. You hurt so many people, I cannot imagine how you can live with yourself for all the pain you cause others.  You are a sick and degenerate individual encouraging others to throw away their life savings on declining assets.  Fortunately you will burn in hell for your sins.

RE

@Artfuldodger: 

What is wrong with revelling in the losses of rich people? Its about time IMHO that the playing field was levelled here. In the war between the Haves and the Have Nots, I side with the Have Nots. Its a good numbers bet to side with the have nots, since the are so many more of them more all the time actually.  Soon YOU will be a have not also! Gotta love Eternal Justice.

RE

@ReverseEngineer: But RE many of the people with these losses are not rich people.  They were average folks who bought into the 'American Dream' and are now being screwed by the same banksters who marketed that dream to them.  The Goldman stinks folks are the rich people and they are in an even better position financially than before the bust.  Their ill gotten gains are at the expense of the average middle class people who believed the 'housing always goes up' mantra.  Did some of them make poor decisions?  Yes.  Does that make them 'rich people' whose troubles should be celebrated?  No.

@sunny1800: Reverend Egg hates everyone, Sunny. Don't you know that?

@sunny1800: 

My sympathies go out to the average and clueless J6P who has already lost his shirt in the meltdown, and to the many more who will lose theirs in the months and years to come.  Basically everybody with a net worth under probably $10M or so is pretty screwed here because there are no asset classes that provide a means for securing your savings all that well these days.  Fundamental here, the more you have just means the more you will lose, up to a point in deflationary or inflationary spin down scenarios.  However, if the monetary system doesn't lose its integrity in entirety and the structures of the banking system remain intact, in either of the above scenarios the extremely wealthy can secure their wealth through asset accumulation and regulatory capture.  This is how the Illuminati have done it in all previous economic dislocations of these types.

What is not clear is that in this meltdown that the banking structures or even the Nation-States which work synergistically with those structures will maintain their integrity, in which case you get RE's main Doomsday Scenario, which is the complete destruction of Money and complete collapse of monetary based trade, devolving at least for a while to an almost pure Barter system.  There is sufficient evidence thusfar with increasing insolvency problems at the Nation State level to consider this a justifiable potential outcome, though by no means is it guaranteed at this point.

As I see it at the moment, what you have evolving is a great leveller in terms of wealth distribution through the vast majority of the society and a two tiered system evolving with no middle class to speak of, until the monetary system and the Nation States collapse in their entirety. This period could last quite some time, decades perhaps. If you want to shorten that period of time, then you have to find some means to get the wealth consolidated into the hands of the Elite moving around again, which is a pretty tall order overall.  Historically, War has provided this means to some extent, reducing surplus people among the poor class, and redistributing some wealth to the hands of surviving Soldiers, since they have to be paid for their services of protecting the property of the Elite class.  Other options are internal Revolutions, whereby the Elite class is forcibly divested of their ownership of the property of society, and often divested of their heads as well, or Civilization Collapses whereby virtually everything is lost to all nd the societies have to rebuld from scratch. Best example of the last one most well known would be the Collapse of the Roman Empire.

In terms of whose "troubles" I Celebrate rather than Sympathize with, its those who took the most personal Gain from the current system and who re int he process of being Flushed down the Toilet along wth the legions of people who never saw any gain whatsoever through this period but rather were exploited and abused.  In this analysis, the more money you have, the guiltier you are.  However, you can gain a measure of salvation by Giving your wealth away rather than retaining it for personal aggrandizement. I would never advocate for anyone to give away what they themselves need for personal survival though.  Given the current maldistribution of Wealth in this country, I could see setting that figure up as high as $1M.  Beyond that, when others in the same society are completely destitute, I think it is immoral to retain so much personal wealth.  However, until such time as people take on a more Tribal understanding and society is small enough to run this way, having some Incentives to work hard and gain some more creature comforts helps keep the society productive. I certainly do NOT see the need or even benefit you might get from having a very FEW people controlling Billions of the World Wealth while others are already in Starvation Mode.  Not locally so much at this point, but certainly true in some third world nations already.

To me, a society wherin the Richest person in the society might make say 10X the earnings of the poorest member seems like a good wealth distribution with good incentives.  Some middle level folks who make 3X or 7X also OK in such an intermediary transition system.  CEOs, Banksters and Hedge Fund Managers who make 500X what the typical hard working J6P makes?  Utterly insupportable on  moral Level IMHO, NOBODY deserves or earns that much in compensation for breathing, no matter WHAT they do, and certainly not for buying up small companies, loading them with debt and then paying yourself megabucks before sending the company into BK and the fiduciary obligation of the Taxpayer.  That IS how things have been operating here for the last coupel fo decades at least, and really a lot longer than that.

RE

@Artfuldodger: 

You really don't get it do you?  I don't hate anyone at all, not even the Pigmen, not even YOU.  I just call 'em as I see 'em.  Put it on a Scale, see which way the balance goes, define the Justice by making a decision of which side of the scale is the Good side, which is the Evil side. If you don't agree with me that Goldman and Big Money is Evil and J6P is Good, I am fine with that.  However to make the statement I hate ANYBODY is ANOTHER of your lies, which come off your keyboard even faster than napalm comes off mine.  You are absolutely pathological as a LIAR, I think you are incapable of writing anything true at all.  Your soul must have been consumed by Mephistopheles years ago, and now as an old and bitter man all you can do is write the same tired analogies over and over.  Think up something NEW for crying out loud! You bore the hell out of me with the same Napalm recycled six ways from Sunday. Its not even worth a response most of the time anymore.

RE

@saber: whatever you do, theres a room full of coniving bastards, figuring out new ways to take all your shit. its the american way!

@Artless Dipshit: Ah Egg, you're back to your old tricks of doubling back under another name and not signing in. You're a smart boy, for someone who belongs in a cage.

@Artfuldodger: 

Another Lie.

Jason I am sure will verify that Alternate ID post did not come from my IP address.

I don't do Anon or Alternate ID posting.

RE

@ReverseEngineer: Egg, you know you're a double-back artist. Ain't it a beautiful thing? Such art, such beauty.

@Artfuldodger: 

You grasp at straws AD. Come on, get real, look closely at my Internet Personality!  Can you IMAGINE me posting ANYTHING I didn;t attribute to myself?  Far to much Ego here for that to happen.  How could I run a  debate using alternate IDs? No follow up.Crutches like that are for the low class poster.  Not my style.  Waste of time.

RE

@haywood jablome: Great points Hay Jab! You are exactly right. Nobody can consistently predict market movements, because there are too many variables involved. Only illiterates and ignoramuses attempt it, and they’re right about one in every 3 million predictions.

@JasonRines: 

Unlikely that AD and I can ever agree to peacefully "Agree to Disagree", but I am all for more argument to topic and less Napalming :-)  Of course, being the hyper-sensitive guy I am, I find offensive even dumb remarks like "Well, I NEVER" that AD uses when he gets boxed in to a corner.  AD would have to completely reinvent his posting style for us to AtD, which is unlikely at best.  You know my Philosophy of Internet Debate Jason, its the Chicago Way.  "When he pulls a Knife, you pull a GUN.  When he sends one of your ideas to the Hospital, you send one of his to the MORGUE".  You could make the case this isn't necessary with AD, since MOST of his ideas are Dead on Arrival anyhow, but nevertheless I still like to fire a few shots into the Corpse to make SURE its DEAD. LOL.

In any event, far as your attempt to secure some wealth by buying some property you can buy with CASH or cash equivalents (such as trading out some still liquid equities), that is probably one of the wiser plays here, although you still have to take care against taking on too many potential Property Tax liabilities, which are likely to increse here as time goes by.  The thing I argue against most would be leveraging to buy property even if you can get a very low interest loan to buy said property.  You lock in your obligation to pay that price over time, when by no means is it a sure thing enough money will be floating around in a deflationary spiral for you to EARN money to pay that loan, not to mention the property tax. If it is a non-recourse mortgage you could argue for it, but you will still need to Dot the I's and Cross the T's if you need to send in the Jingle Mail down the line.

As I have mentioned before, I think a better way to organize up property purchase under the current system of corporate laws would be to form an LLC and not hold Title to the property directly, but through Shares in the Corporation.  It would also allow for larger property purchases nd secure larger areas of land.  Such a method would allow you to insulate your personally held wealth against liabilities that might be dropped on the LLC through the tax system.  Forming several layers of Holding Companies would further insulate you and subsidiary LLCs from individual BK proceedings which might become necessary at some point.

Legal Counsel of SSBF Attorneys definitely necessary here to properly structure the varying company layers. So it takes a decent Capital outlay in Legal fees.  Not something the individual can generally afford, except for the outrageously rich Pigmen.

Just to short circuit anybody who wants to accuse me of HYPOCRISY here, you have to remember I am a Realist and I have plenty of familiarity with this stuff on a structural level.  If the Enemy is using certain Battle Tactics and the War is fought on this level, it does not behoove you to ignore such weapons of warfare.  The Legal System remains a major Battleground here, and you should use it just as the Pigmen do for so long as it is efficacious in the War to do so.

Don't be stupid in the Battle for ALL the Marbles. LAYER up in corporate structure, and LAWYER UP!  Hire unspoiled bright Lawyers straight out of Law School.  You remember what Sean Connery did in the "Untouchables" when Kevin Costner wanted to find an Uncorrupted Cop in Chicago?  They went tot the Police Academy, and they hired the Fast Gun of Italian Immigrant Andy Garcia "To Protecta and Defenda da Citizens"

Long as the Money and the Legal system are working in concert here, you NEED a Fast Gun Lawyer.  Finding an Uncorrupted one with enough Brains to negotiate this shit isn't easy of course, but you certainly want to look for one.  I wouldn't go to any major corporate law offices though to do it.  Hire straight out of Law School or the PDs office.  Or else ALSO find some real OLD independent Lawyer who maybe has filed a lot of Class Action law suits or is an Ambulance Chaser.  A REAL Shyster.  I am thinking here of the character Fyvush Finkel played on LA Law.  LOL.

RE

@ReverseEngineer: I read your commentary. Let me focus on the Lawyering Up part. I like a new organization of lawyers that recently formed called OAK. I am conducting due dilligence with the Board of Directors this week. When and if I feel comfortable with this newfound coalition, we shall see if it is something worth partnering with. A bunch of us here at RD seem good at media and news reporting (or tech nerds like me) but we are not lawyers to fight fire with fire.

As for land purchases and sheltering of liabilities, that is sound advice. For a sustainability/survivability life insurance  type plan we discuss, that will be a work in progress. The land purchasing is my own physical hedging along with friends and family. Since that takes time, I am beginning this year. I do not intend to wait in line for my 1,500 calories of food and 4 hours of electric power per day rations from government that is coming.

@JasonRines: 

The newer the organization,  the less likely it is to have embedded tentacles of corruption, but a bit like the Tea Party, its also suceptible to being coopted by greater forces.  So due diligence definitely necessary there.  I kow nothing about the OAK Group of Lawyers, if you can fil me in on the concept and structure of the group, I will voice my opinion on it (either publicly or privately as you prefer).

IMHO as you know, there is no time to waste in setting up defense structures against the collapse scenarios, whatever they are however they might manifest themselves.  Prudence dictates preparing for the WORST while hoping for the best.  We have discussed many of the most obvious preps people can take, like making sure you have at least a few weeks worth of food and water to tide you over for brief and intermmittent conduit failures.  However, when you look at broader collapse scenarios that can occur over longer timelines (as long or longer than the lietimes of your children), developing a series of layered structures and plans is the "long hedge".

Long Hedge Plans are more difficult to implement, and of course they take more money generally speaking.  Thus the reason it is important for J6P types like myself to come together and work up such plans cooperatively.  It doesn't have to be JUST J6Ps of course, even those of greater means who want to insure against LOSING EVERYTHING have good reason to developing this form of Long Hedge.  You can think of this kind of thing as Investing in Community, or Investing in People.  Honestly, if *I* had $100M to invest, I would invest in People and Community before I would Invest in Gold for sure.

The ideal Group, Tribe or "Phyle" (a Neal Stephenson term our old friend JimQ liked) combines the talents and abilities of many Community  members.  You certainly need your writers and your tech nerds and your hands on permaculture farmers etc.  Much as I love to hate them though, in this battle for all the marbles you need your lawyers also.  Laweyrs are your Black Ops people on the Financial Level.  No big corporation gains Regualtory Capture without a freaking ARMY of Lawyers.  Not really possible to fight that ont he aggregte level most of the time, but inside small communities having your own little Army of Black Ops SSBFs is an indespensible weapon as long a sthe legal system continues to function on some level.

I don't know the structure of the OAK group of SSBFs, but a Collapse Oriented Law Firm should have for sure good BK lawyers, Civil Disobedience Lawyers, Criminal Defense Lawyers, Tort Lawyers and Contract Lawyers. At least one real old lawyer who has done it all also, preferably as an independent.  Every last one of them should be ready to get downright Junkyard Dog MEAN also.  No tactic too low, no argument too specious, no fabrication of evidence out of the question. LOL.  You do NOT bring a Knife to a Gunfight, ESPECIALLY in a Court of Law.  The Law is like the world of Dogfights.  Only the meanest ones who fight the dirtiest win.

RE

@JasonRines: Yes sir, Mr. Jason, sir. It's been a fun weekend playing with the good Reverend.

But you're right: it's time to get back to work. Egg, behave! And don't forget to wash those hands before lighting up.

@JasonRines: plus 5% gdp for 2010? thats a lot of burger flipping and paper shuffling jobs. just need a devils island to store all those unemployed (used to be)productive citizens to make sure they are off the bean counter stats. im sure the demoCRAPS and the republiCONS can handle that chore with a years worth of ass digging each other on celebrity cable news.

@JasonRines: 

The problem with using GDP numbers to predict a bottoming in the housing market is that even those economistas who optimistically predict a rising GDP admit it will be a "Jobless Recovery".  Thing about housing is, whether you are going to Buy it or Rent it, you gotta have a Job.  This is the point Dr. Housing Bubble returns to over and over again discussing the shadow inventory in CA and no bottom in sight for that market.

No estimates I have read of the Job Market call for the current depressed employment situation to rebound on anything shorter than a decade timespan.  So its hard to imagine who exactly will be buying the overhang of housing sitting in the shadow inventory.

RE

@ReverseEngineer: The Boomers are downsizing during this timeframe as well. The pricing of homes will indeed be contingent on what the prevailing wages are moving forward over the next decade. Here is something else I learned first hand about bubble economics. They take a decade after the pop of the bubble to come back. If 2007 was the peak, 2017 is when home pricing will reach parody.

@JasonRines: 

That would be Parity Jason, not Parody.  Although whatever pricing we have in 2017 is sure to be a Parody as well :-)

Be careful with the English language, those spellings get mighty confusing sometimes. Realize how carefully you have to write your code and not get confusion in the database, eh? You have to be careful how you write the prose also.  Words are a dangerous game.  You can take down the net with bad code.  You can take down everything with bad words, or words used badly. Be careful.

RE

@ReverseEngineer: Oh yes, thank you RE. No sleep for me last evening.